The dollar hovered near multi-month lows on Tuesday with lofty commodity prices lending support to exporters’ currencies, though caution about U.S. inflation bringing forward rate rises kept the greenback from sliding.

The resource-sensitive Australian dollar sat by Monday’s two-month high and was steady around $0.7831. The similarly exposed Canadian currency, which hit an almost four-year high on Monday, held at C$1.2096 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar traded near its highest since February.

Sterling was also perched near its highest since March on the dollar and strongest since early April on the euro, as investors cheered forthcoming lockdown easing and receding risks of another Scottish independence referendum.

However further moves were kept in check by looming U.S. consumer price figures due on Wednesday, as traders worry that a big number might prompt the Fed to wind back monetary policy support sooner than expected.

Appearances later on Tuesday from U.S. Federal Reserve members John Williams, at 1430 GMT, and Lael Brainard, at 1600 GMT, will be parsed for clues as to central bank thinking.

The euro was broadly steady at $1.2142 after hitting a two-month top on Monday and the yen held at 108.81 per dollar.

The South Korean won and Taiwan dollar fell, however, along with declines in their tech-heavy stock markets and a broader selloff in growth stocks on Wall Street and in Asia on inflation concerns.

“There are a lot of cross currents,” said Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim, as surging commodity prices on one hand lift commodity currencies and on the other add to the inflationary pressure that has got risk assets jittery.

“The big question is whether the Fed can be comfortable staying dovish,” he said. “If inflation rises more than the Fed expects…what happens to the Fed then?”

FED TEST

Markets expect U.S. year-on-year inflation to hit 3.6% in April, juiced by the base effect of a pandemic year contraction.

But investors seem increasingly at odds with policymakers over whether that sort of price growth will persist, and drove up U.S. five-year breakevens – a measure of inflation expectations – to a decade-high 2.717% on Monday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has shown every sign of staying patient on policy, even if the economy runs hot. However Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan caused a stir last month by calling for beginning to talk about tapering, and there are growing signs that prices could keep rising at a clip if unchecked.

The sharpest rise in China’s factory gate prices in more than three years is the latest signal that soaring commodity costs are headed down the supply chain to end consumers.

China’s producer price index in April rose 6.8% from a year earlier, official data showed, ahead of a 6.5% rise tipped by a Reuters poll of analysts.

Even more pressure is still to come as the full implications of a global chip shortage work their way through production lines, said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

“Even bags that do not have a chip in them, use chips in the process of production,” she said. “This chip inflation may be passed on to consumers and result in a faster CPI growth rate if the chip shortage persists.”

Profit taking pulled copper and lumber from record peaks, but iron ore has continued to forge ahead and currencies linked to the booming prices mostly hung on to gains. The Canadian dollar is within striking distance of a six-year peak and copper exporter Chile’s peso held near its best since 2019.

Peru’s sol currency on Monday posted its biggest daily gain in just over five years after opinion polls showed the gap closing between socialist front-runner Pedro Castillo and the right-wing Keiko Fujimori ahead of June 6 presidential elections.

Two new polls released Sunday and Monday showed Castillo, a little known schoolteacher from rural Peru, had lost almost his entire lead over Fujimori, a three-time contender for the presidency.

The sol closed up 2.36%, its strongest daily performance since April 2016.

Castillo’s surprise appearance on the ballot had rattled many investors and miners, cautious of a sharp left turn in the world’s No. 2 copper producer, which will be electing its fifth president in the past five years after a constitutional crisis last year.

The recent polls appeared to assuage some of their concerns. A survey from Peru’s Company for Market Studies and Public Opinion (CPI) found Castillo’s lead had shrunk to just 2.2 percentage points, compared to a 12.4 percentage point gap in the group’s previous poll. The poll of 1,600 people was conducted between May 6-8, with a margin of error of 2.5%.

Another poll, published Sunday by the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP) put the gap between the two candidates at 6.2 percentage points, versus 20 points two weeks ago.

On Friday, the international Datum reported that the advantage was five percentage points.

Castillo, who has pledged to redraft Peru’s constitution to give the state a more dominant role in the economy, has recently moved to moderate his stance in some areas to help win over centrist and center-left voters.

But Fujimori, the scion of a powerful political family whose father is an ex-president now in prison for corruption and human rights abuses, has ratcheted up her criticism of Castillo as a left-wing extremist who could jeopardize the Andean’s nation’s economic progress in recent years.

Доллар несет потери по отношению к корзине валют крупнейших экспортеров сырьевых товаров, получивших поддержку от ожиданий дальнейшего роста цен на нефть, а также на медь, сталь и прочие металлы.

Рынок ждет публикации данных о потребительских ценах в США в среду, чтобы определить, растет ли инфляционное давление, которое может способствовать росту доходности казначейских гособлигаций США и замедлить падение доллара, говорят некоторые трейдеры.

Доходность госбондов и курс доллара сильно колебались, поскольку инвесторы корректировали свои ожидания относительно того, когда вслед за укреплением американской экономики Федеральная резервная система США начнет сворачивать программу покупки госдолга и повысит процентные ставки. Несколько членов руководства ФРС выступят на этой неделе, и их комментарии дадут много пищи для размышлений.

Индекс доллара к корзине из шести основных валют вырос на 0,07% до 90,272​ к 09:12 МСК.

По отношению к канадскому доллару “зеленый” подешевел на 0,03% до $1,2093, что близко к минимуму более трех лет.

Австралийский доллар подорожал на 0,03% до $0,7832, приблизившись к максимуму 11 недель​. Новозеландский доллар снизился на 0,07% до $0,7269​, торгуясь вблизи максимума прошлого конца февраля.

Доллар США также держался у минимума двух недель к мексиканскому песо.

Многие инвесторы ожидают, что спрос на сырьевые товары вырастет по мере массовой вакцинации от коронавируса, которая позволит все большему количеству стран вернуться к нормальной экономической активности.

Кроме того, ограниченное предложение некоторых сырьевых товаров предполагает, что цены могут оставаться высокими в течение длительного периода, из-за чего некоторые сырьевые валюты показывают лучшую динамику по отношению к доллару в этом году.

Фунт стерлингов опустился на 0,04% до $1,4114​, в ходе торгов приблизившись к максимуму с 25 февраля, так как инвесторы приветствовали прогресс Великобритании в открытии экономики после локдаунов.

Евро вырос на 0,07% до $1,2137​, японская иена подешевела на 0,1%​ в паре с долларом до 108,89 иены.

На рынке криптовалют эфириум торговался по $3.916,97, отойдя от рекордного максимума в $4.200. Его соперник биткоин слегка подешевел до $55.119,43.

В ходе сегодняшних торгов доллар США дешевеет в паре с евро и стабилен относительно иены и фунта стерлингов. По состоянию на 9:18 мск евро подорожал до $1,2139 по сравнению с $1,2129 на закрытие предыдущей сессии.

Доллар в паре с японской нацвалютой стоил на то же время 108,90 иены против 108,81 иены накануне.

За фунта к 9:18/ мск давали $1,4118, как и на закрытие вчерашних торгов.

Рассчитываемый ICE индекс, отслеживающий динамику доллара относительно шести валют (евро, швейцарский франк, иена, канадский доллар, фунт стерлингов и шведская крона), прибавляет во вторник 0,03%, более широкий WSJ Dollar Index – теряет 0,01%.

В центре внимания валютного рынка на этой неделе – апрельские данные о динамике потребительских цен в США, которые будут обнародованы министерством труда в среду в 15:30 МСК.

Консенсус-прогноз экспертов предусматривает ускорение инфляции в США в апреле до 3,6% в годовом выражении по сравнению с 2,6% в марте, свидетельствуют данные Trading Economics.

Сразу несколько факторов указывает на усиление инфляции, в том числе, рост зарплат, бюджетные стимулы и повышение цен на сырье, отмечают эксперты DailyFX.com. Индикатор инфляционных ожиданий, рассчитываемый Федеральным резервным банком (ФРБ) Нью-Йорка, в апреле вырос до 3,4%, максимума с сентября 2013 года, по сравнению с 3,2% в марте.

Тем временем, президент Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Чикаго Чарльз Эванс заявил накануне, что темпы инфляции, как и уровень занятости в США, далеки от показателей, при которых Федрезерв мог бы задуматься об изменении денежно-кредитной политики.

The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and U.S. President Joe Biden’s address in front of a joint session of Congress, both due to take place later in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.10% to 90.980 by 12:51 AM ET (4:51 AM GMT), after touching an eight-week low earlier in the week.

The USD/JPY pair edged up 0.14% to 108.83. Japan reported a better-than-expected 5.2% increase in March retail sales year-on-year earlier in the day. However, rising COVID-19 cases in the country and the Bank of Japan’s acknowledgment on Tuesday that inflation will fail to reach its key 2% target through early 2023.

The AUD/USD pair was down 0.24% to 0.7745. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) data released earlier in the day missed forecasts, rising 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year respectively during the first quarter of 2021. The NZD/USD pair was steady at 0.7207.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.05% to .6.4863 and the GBP/USD pair was down 0.26% to 1.3876.

Although the dollar rebounded from its lowest level since Mar.3 hit on Monday, skepticism remains on whether its downward trend since late March is over.

Receding bets on whether the Fed will start laying the groundwork for a future policy tightening soon when its hands down its decision, also contributed to the U.S. currency’s decline.

Although the central bank is expected to maintain its dovish policy, some investors suggested that signs of rising inflation expectations could nudge it to abandon the stance sooner than expected. The break-even inflation rate rose above 2.40%, its highest level since 2013, on Tuesday.

“In a way, the rise in the BEI above 2% is what the Fed has been wishing for. Still, if it goes too far it could raise alarm at the Fed. The Fed will probably not be able to overlook a rise in BEI above 2.5%,” SMBC Nikko Securities chief FX strategist Makoto Noji told Reuters.

The Federal Reserve said last year it aims to bring average inflation around 2% and to allow it to overshoot above 2%, rather than trying to cap it around 2%.

Investors are also paying attention to Biden’s address, his first as president, for more details on his prosed tax hike for the wealthiest Americans to fund about $1 trillion in childcare.

“In addition to tax policies that have resurfaced as a market focus, his stance on diplomacy should attract some attention given recent tensions with China and Russia,” Barclays (LON:BARC) senior strategist Shinichiro Kadota told Reuters.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin extended its rebound from Sunday’s trough to hit the $55,461 mark, and Ether hit a record high of $2,711.6, on Wednesday.

Ethereum, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalisation, touched a new peak on Wednesday, with participants citing media reports about the European Investment Bank’s plans to launch a “digital bond” sale on the ethereum blockchain network.

Ether is the digital currency or token that facilitates transactions on the ethereum blockchain. In the crypto world, the terms ether and ethereum have become interchangeable.

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, that the EIB plans to issue a two-year 100-million euro digital bond, with the sale to be led by Goldman Sachs, Banco Santander, and Societe Generale, according to analysts.

Ether hit a record high of $2,713.95 on Wednesday, following a more than 5% rally the previous day. It was last up 1.4% at $2,706.39.

Danny Kim, head of revenue at SFOX, a full-service crypto broker, said reports on an EIB digital bond issuance has “triggered a bullish institutional use case for ethereum”.

He also cited the decline in supply of ethereum in the market, which has jacked up its price.

“The amount of ethereum sitting on exchanges continues to drop lower and has been the lowest in the past year,” Kim said. “With less supply on exchange available, there’s less likely a chance of a major sell-off.”

Demand for ether has also risen as investors use the tokens to buy virtual art or land, in the form of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), on platforms such as SuperRare and Decentraland.

On Monday, digital currencies got a boost from reports that JPMorgan Chase is planning to offer a managed bitcoin fund, the latest indication that what is considered by many a speculative investment is gaining institutional legitimacy.

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest crypto asset with more than $1 trillion in market capitalisation, regained the $50,000 mark this week. Bitcoin, was last up 1% at $55,630.82 but well below its record high at $64,895.22 set on April 14.

On March 1, Goldman Sachs restarted its cryptocurrency trading desk, just weeks after Tesla Inc announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin, sparking a rally.

But cryptos hit some resistance after U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled plans to raise capital gains taxes, a move which could curb investment in the digital assets.

Российский Центробанк сообщил, что с 4 по 7 мая 2021 года продолжит ежедневно осуществлять операции по предоставлению и абсорбированию ликвидности банкам, а также сделки на внутреннем валютном рынке.

Президент Владимир Путин решил сделать нерабочими дни между майскими праздниками.

Операции по покупке и продаже иностранной валюты на организованных торгах Московской биржи будут проводиться 4, 5 и 6 мая 2021 года с датой расчета на следующий торговый день, 7 мая 2021 года — на следующий рабочий день, сообщил ЦБ.

В настоящее время ЦБР покупает на рынке валюту в рамках механизма бюджетного правила на сумму 8,4 миллиарда рублей в день, операции в таком объеме будут проходить по 7 мая.

ЦБР будет проводить 4-7 мая операции репо по фиксированной ставке ежедневно с исполнением первой части в день проведения, второй части — на следующий день, если он не является выходным или нерабочим праздничным днем.

Операции по предоставлению обеспеченных кредитов ЦБ будут проводиться ежедневно в обычном режиме, как и сделки “валютный своп”.

Недельный депозитный аукцион 4 мая 2021 года пройдет в соответствии с ранее утвержденным графиком.

Аукционы “тонкой настройки” будут проводиться при необходимости с учетом ситуации с ликвидностью банковского сектора.

Доллар США укрепляется относительно евро и иены перед началом двухдневного заседания Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС).

Эксперты, опрошенные агентством Bloomberg, ожидают, что ФРС подтвердит по итогам этого заседания свою готовность продолжать выкуп активов в прежних объемах до “достижения существенного прогресса” в движении к целям максимальной занятости и ценовой стабильности.

При этом 45% опрошенных, полагают, что еще до конца текущего года американский ЦБ анонсирует планы постепенного сокращения ежемесячных объемов выкупа активов, поскольку экономика США быстро восстанавливается после кризиса, вызванного пандемией коронавируса. В марте Федрезерв сообщил, что продолжит ежемесячно выкупать активы на общую сумму $120 млрд, в том числе US Treasuries на $80 млрд и ипотечные бонды на $40 млрд. Повышения базовой процентной ставки, находящейся в настоящее время в диапазоне от 0% до 0,25% годовых, эксперты ожидают не ранее 2023 года.

Внимание инвесторов в среду будет приковано к пресс-конференции председателя ФРС Джерома Пауэлла, от которого они ждут сигналов о том, когда Федрезерв может начать сокращение стимулов. Ранее Пауэлл обещал заранее предупредить рынки о планируемых изменениях в политике ФРС.

Банк Японии по итогам завершившегося во вторник двухдневного заседания улучшил прогноз для ВВП страны на текущий финансовый год до 4% с 3,9%, отметив, что восстановление мировой экономики поддержит рост. В то же время в Центробанке не ожидают усиления инфляции в Японии до 2-процентного целевого показателя, по крайней мере, в течение еще трех лет.

Банк Японии сохранил неизменными ключевые параметры денежно-кредитной политики (ДКП) – краткосрочную процентную ставку по депозитам коммерческих банков в ЦБ на уровне минус 0,1% годовых, целевую доходность десятилетних гособлигаций Японии – около нуля.

По состоянию на 9:21 мск евро к доллару снизился на 0,08% – до $1,2076 по сравнению с $1,2086 на закрытие предыдущей сессии.

Стоимость американской валюты в паре с иеной увеличилась на 0,13% – до 108,22 иены против 108,08 иены накануне. Евро к иене стабилен и торгуется на уровне 130,63 иены против 130,64 иены накануне.

Фунт стерлингов подешевел к доллару на 0,09% – до $1,3887 по сравнению с $1,3899 по итогам предыдущей сессии.

Рассчитываемый ICE индекс, отслеживающий динамику доллара относительно шести валют (евро, швейцарский франк, иена, канадский доллар, фунт стерлингов и шведская крона), прибавляет во вторник 0,12%, более широкий WSJ Dollar Index – 0,1%.

The dollar languished on Wednesday, hovering just above a seven-week low with subdued U.S. bond yields reducing the currency’s yield appeal.

The safe-haven greenback got some respite from a pullback in world stocks from record highs as flare ups in coronavirus infections from India to Canada soured the outlook for a quick global recovery.

The safety bid also bolstered the yen, which climbed to a fresh seven-week peak of 107.88 per dollar on Wednesday.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, was at 91.254 in Asia after slumping as low as 90.856 on Tuesday for the first time since March 3. It has declined 2.1% so far this month.

The index “has broken down through a key short-term support level at 91.30 and can see further downside to the low 90s,” with the euro rising to around $1.22, Westpac strategists wrote in a client note.

“We were looking for the (index) to top in Q3, when second derivative U.S. rebound measures crest and Europe gets her vax act together, but the early indications are that vaccinations across Europe are picking up pace already,” Westpac said.

The single currency traded at $1.20275, after touching a seven-week high of $1.2079 overnight.

The European Central Bank decides policy on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan following next week.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 1.56%, not far from its lowest since mid-March, as it continued to consolidate following its retreat from the 14-month high at 1.7760% reached at the end of last month.

“Now that U.S. Treasury yields have started coming off, people are unwinding yen short positions,” said Tohru Sasaki, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)’s head of Japan market research.

The yen could strengthen to 105 per dollar in the near term, he said. Japan’s currency was as weak as 110.97 for the first time in a year at the end of last month.

Declines in U.S. yields and the dollar in April have come as evidence mounted that the Fed would be slower in tightening monetary policy than it had appeared to the market, analysts said.

Some encouragement for the euro came from the announcement that the European Union has secured an additional 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by BioNTech and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).

Elsewhere though, pandemic developments triggered investor caution.

India reported 1,761 deaths from COVID-19, its highest daily toll, while Canada and the United States extended a land-border closure for non-essential travellers.

Asian equities tracked declines on Wall Street, where travel stocks weighed on sentiment.

Oil fell, dragging commodity-linked currencies lower overnight.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.26110 to the greenback in Asia, following its biggest plunge in nearly two months on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada is due to announce a policy decision later Wednesday.

The Australian dollar, a barometer for risk appetite, weakened 0.2% to $0.77057 after sliding 0.4% overnight.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin traded around $55,500, consolidating following its dip to as low as $51,541.16 on Sunday. It set a record high at $64,895.22 on April 14.

Inflows into cryptocurrency funds and products hit $4.9 billion as of April 16, with the pace of increase slowing a bit in the first two weeks of the month after hitting record levels in the first quarter, data from digital currency manager Coinshares showed on Tuesday.

Inflows in the first two weeks of April hit about $400 million to $4.9 billion, or about 9% higher than an all-time high of $4.5 billion in the first three months of the year.

The pace of inflows had already moderated in the first quarter, after a 240% surge in the fourth.

That said, inflows in the second week of April totaled $233 million, the largest since early March, Coinshares said.

Bitcoin’s rise also slowed in the first two weeks of the month, growing just 5.7%, although it hit a record just under $65,000 during that period. After touching that all-time peak last week, bitcoin has plunged nearly 18% in six days. Bitcoin last traded up 0.8% at $56,161.

“There were … signs of excessive exuberance in the market, and a correction looked imminent,” said Pankaj Balani, chief executive officer of Delta Exchange, a crypto derivatives trading platform.

Inflows last week were more spread out to include other digital assets outside of bitcoin and ethereum.

Bitcoin still saw the largest inflows of $108 million, with ethereum snagging $65 million. But investors poured money into other digital tokens, including bitcoin cash, Polkadot, Binance, and Tezos, Coinshares data showed.

Crypto assets under management (AUM) have also surged to a peak of $64.2 billion, the data showed. In the first quarter, the sector’s AUM was $59 billion. Last year, assets under management for the sector hit $37.6 billion.

Grayscale is still the largest digital currency manager, with $49.5 billion in assets as of the second week of April, while CoinShares, the second biggest and the largest European digital asset manager, oversees about $5.7 billion in assets.

XRP has been the most popular digital asset in recent weeks with weekly inflows of $33 million, nearly doubling its assets under management to $83 million.